How much do you think Fidel's sweatsuit would go for on EBAY?

One cannot call themselves a serious student of Latin America or democracy if they fail to consider the impact of Fidel’s “resignation” on Cuba’s future. On the surface, the event means little. In fact, the owner of the Caribbean’s most famous beard relegated himself to wearing sweatsuits and authoring op-eds for the last year and a half. Thus, other than the fabrication of new business cards and stationary for Comrade Raúl, little has changed. However, I think if one thinks of the longer term; Castro’s resignation may mark the beginning of Cuba’s transition to democracy.

I sincerely doubt that there will ever be what Jorge Domínguez has called, a “poof moment” in Cuba’s history. That is, there will never be a day when all of a sudden the dictatorship collapses and democracy begins. Instead, the transition will be slow moving. Opening will occur but not at the pace that Washington or the exile community in Miami desires. Understanding this, it is obvious that the U.S. embargo is an ineffective tool to help speed democratization. In fact, with the full force of U.S. policy against it, the regime has survived. This leaves Washington with zero leverage on the island.

Throughout Cuba’s slow transition toward democracy; reformers will emerge within the regime and popular pressure will encourage reform. Moreover, FDI and commercial interests can serve to strengthen such actors and validate the value of the free market. Nonetheless, until Cuba is a full-fledged western-style democracy, the U.S. will be a mere bystander.

Indeed as various analysts have noted, the transition will most likely resemble that of China. There, the international community is able to make credible threats because they have credible investments that can be withdrawn. As such, they are occasionally able to drive change. Beyond the fact that the embargo is inhumane, immoral, and hypocritical the U.S. should normalize relations with Cuba so that it can help to shape change and deliver a dose of democracy that the island’s residents deserve.

In consequence, Castro’s resignation is insignificant. It is an official end to a role that was already finished. Nonetheless, it marks a key moment in which the hardest of hardliners has now left the regime. Raúl seems more approachable and perhaps even reform minded; overall the opportunity offers a new U.S. administration the chance to engage and encourage the island’s democratic transition.

Meanwhile, if Raul is interested in establishing relations with the U.S., he must be willing to give something up - all those political prisoners might be a good place to start.