So Fidel decided not to run for president this time, leaving his brother Raul in charge. For people who follow Latin America, as avidly as the contributors of this blog do, this is one of the most expected moments, if not the most, in the History we hoped to witness. And this is not a politically or ideologically biased thought, we all knew that somehow, sometime, Fidel’s rule was going to end, inevitably. Given the timing, we knew that such moment was not afar. However, until recently, the current situation was not foreseen, instead, we all were waiting for his death.
This is a time for analysis and reflections. Doubtlessly, there will be an avalanche of assessments on this or that aspects. What are the implications of Fidel’s decision on the Island, the region, the hemisphere, etc? What will happen next? Is he really stepping down, or will he pull the strings from the backstage?
For anyone who considers or would like to consider him/herself a Latin Americanist, the time that will be devoted to read, write, talk about this issue will be considerable. Due to this, and my limited knowledge on the subject I would only to briefly touch on two issues that will certainly be addressed more in depth elsewhere. I would like to provide some food for thought, so to speak.
Despite all deficiencies that can be highlighted about Fidel’s regime, there are two issues I would like to remark: education and health. Cuba is a highly educated society with a quite healthy population. These two factors have been constantly signaled as crucial factors for development (see for instance this new report by the World Bank). The question I wish to put in the table is whether Cuba, entering a new stage, will be able to capitalize these factors in order to catch up in the development race.
The second issue relates to the timing of Fidel in announcing his decision in relation to the elections in the US. Had Fidel announced his decision two-three years ago, the resonance within the US agenda would have been considerably lower. Not only US foreign policy was driven by the war in Iraq and instability in the middle-east, but the Bush’s administration reluctance to approach Cuba could have limited the impact of such announcement. In contrast, given the electoral campaigns, “The Cuba Question” (see earlier post by Mainer Chris) will become quite relevant, particularly, if Raul attempts approaching the US.
2 comments:
Healthcare and education are the saving graces for every Fidel apologist I have ever talked to. The conversation is usually along the lines of "...yeah there are all those bad things, but Cuba has the lowest infant mortality rate in the Hemisphere...everyone is literate...etc." But of course Cubans don't have equal access to hospitals - the good ones are reserved for party/government officials and tourists (from Capitalist countries). And sure, Cubans are literate - they are free to read Granma (the state newspaper), works such as History Will Absolve Me, the Communist Manifesto - but of course nothing that challenges the regime or helps to develop a world view.
Having said that, Luis makes a good point that for a tragically repressed and stucturally underdeveloped country, Cuba does seem to possess high human capital. Achieving high standards of national education is not an overnight project, so Cuba is ahead of the game compared to other countries emerging from totalitarian regimes.
Now if we could get them to use some of the resources spent on repression and intelligence gathering to put up some new buildings and fix old ones, things might be better for Cuba.
Will Raul do that? He may make some minor liberalizing changes while Fidel is still alive, but probably nothing significant enough to lead regular Cubans to dare think they have a political voice.
i am not so sure actually. i can see raul being a more drastic change than most commentarists seem to willing to guess. who really knows of course, but several of the subtle indications that raul has given thus far that he is prepared to pursue a potential economic opening a la China could spell big changes in Cuba. I fully agree with Peter, in theory freedom is not something that can be half granted - but i think such an apertura could spell bigger changes for Cuba in the long run, and paradoxically, because of the place that Cuba holds in the pan-latin american imagination and the strength of the "new latin american left" opening markets may be what saves what little is left of the grand revolution.
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